Bidding wars are back in parts of the Toronto housing market, but prices aren't climbing: the average GTA home sold for 98% of asking in September 2026, and prices are still down from a year ago. This post goes deeper than the video, with the full TRREB numbers, the math behind the rent or own question, and what Toronto's October 26 election means for your home.
The short version
- Is Toronto in a bidding war market? Only in pockets. Across the GTA, homes sold for 98% of asking on average in September 2026, while semi-detached homes in the City of Toronto sold for 104%.
- Are prices going up? Not yet. The GTA average price was $1,006,409 in September 2026, down 5.1% from a year earlier. Fewer listings, not rising prices, are creating the competition.
- Is it cheaper to rent or buy a $700,000 home in Toronto? With today's rates, the cost you don't get back on a $700,000 condo is about $3,371 a month, against $3,609 for an average three-bedroom rental.
- Can you still buy a detached home in Toronto for less than the suburbs? Yes. The September 2026 detached benchmark price in Toronto's W03 district was $911,600, lower than Brampton, Mississauga, Vaughan, Markham and Oakville.
- What does the October 26 election mean for buyers? Brad Bradford promises to waive Toronto's land transfer tax on the first $1.1 million of a purchase, worth up to $18,475. Olivia Chow says cutting it would mean service cuts.
Is Toronto back in a bidding war market?
Not across the board. TRREB described September 2026 as a holding pattern: GTA sales fell 9% from a year earlier, and new listings fell even faster, by 14.4%. With fewer homes to choose from, the best-priced listings draw a crowd, while everything else sits.
| GTA, September 2026 | 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 5,040 | 5,540 | -9.0% |
| Average price | $1,006,409 | $1,060,036 | -5.1% |
| New listings | 16,500 | 19,270 | -14.4% |
| Active listings | 26,131 | 28,813 | -9.3% |
| Average days on market | 34 | 33 | +3.0% |
The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark, which tracks a typical home rather than whatever happened to sell, was down 4.7% year over year. TRREB's chief information officer, Jason Mercer, says there is "substantial pent-up demand" but buyers want confidence in their jobs and borrowing costs first.
The City of Toronto by home type
Inside the 416, the picture splits by home type. Semi-detached homes were the only major type with a higher average price than a year ago.
| City of Toronto, September 2026 | Sales | Average price | Price vs last year | Sold vs asking | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 640 | $1,562,966 | -7.6% | 98% | 27 |
| Semi-detached | 211 | $1,207,884 | +2.1% | 104% | 21 |
| Freehold townhouse | 92 | $1,104,629 | -0.8% (all townhouses) | 102% | 23 |
| Condo townhouse | 97 | $749,653 | -0.8% (all townhouses) | 98% | 39 |
| Condo apartment | 884 | $640,248 | -6.1% | 97% | 40 |
Across all home types, the City of Toronto recorded 1,937 sales at an average price of $1,034,320 and a median of $810,000. There were 4.6 months of inventory, which sits in balanced-market territory. The typical Toronto home, measured by the benchmark, was $908,200, down 3.8% from a year earlier.
This is why I say bidding wars are a pricing strategy, not a market condition. Many sellers list low to draw multiple offers, but the solds tell you the real price.
Where are homes selling over asking in Toronto?
The east end. In September 2026, Toronto East homes sold for 101% of asking on average, with 3.6 months of inventory, the tightest of the city's three regions.
| City of Toronto, September 2026 | Sales | Average price | Sold vs asking | Months of inventory | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto East | 481 | $956,004 | 101% | 3.6 | 29 |
| Toronto West | 532 | $985,920 | 99% | 4.4 | 33 |
| Toronto Central | 924 | $1,102,955 | 98% | 5.1 | 34 |
The real competition sits in a handful of TRREB districts. These had the highest sale-to-list ratios for all home types in September:
| District | Roughly covers | Sold vs asking | Days on market | Months of inventory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E01 | Riverdale, Leslieville, South Riverdale | 109% | 18 | 2.4 |
| E02 | The Beaches, Woodbine Corridor | 105% | 12 | 2.3 |
| W01 | Roncesvalles, South Parkdale, High Park-Swansea | 104% | 26 | 4.0 |
| W02 | High Park North, the Junction, Bloor West Village | 103% | 18 | 2.7 |
Semi-detached homes in E01 sold for 113% of asking in just 12 days on average. At the other end, C12 (around the Bridle Path) had 9 months of inventory, and homes there sold for 96% of asking.
So if you're watching headlines about bidding wars, ask where. Most of the city is at or below asking.
Should you rent or buy a $700,000 home in Toronto?
At September 2026 rates, buying a $700,000 condo costs about $238 a month less than renting a three-bedroom, once you separate the money you don't get back from the money you're saving. Here's the math I walked through in the video, in full.
| Monthly cost, $700,000 condo | Amount | Do you get it back? |
|---|---|---|
| Mortgage interest | $2,446 | No |
| Mortgage principal | $932 | Yes, it's equity |
| Condo fees (example) | $650 | No |
| Property tax (example) | $275 | No |
| Total paid each month | $4,303 | |
| Cost you don't get back | $3,371 | |
| Average three-bedroom rent | $3,609 | No |
The assumptions: a first-time buyer putting down the minimum $45,000 (about 6.4%), a 4.34% insured five-year fixed rate (one of the lowest advertised in late September), and a 30-year amortization. Since December 2024, first-time buyers with an insured mortgage can choose 30 years, which keeps the monthly payment lower. Mortgage insurance is added to the loan.
What you need at closing
| Cash to close, $700,000 first-time purchase | Amount |
|---|---|
| Down payment | $45,000 |
| Ontario and Toronto land transfer tax, after first-time buyer rebates | $12,475 |
| Provincial sales tax on mortgage insurance (paid in cash) | about $2,200 |
| Legal and closing costs | about $2,500 |
| Total | about $62,200 |
If the home is a freehold house or townhouse with no condo fees, the cost you don't get back drops to about $2,721 a month, nearly $900 less than rent. One caution: the first month of a mortgage is the most interest-heavy. The equity part grows every month after.
What $700,000 buys in Toronto right now
The median Toronto condo apartment sold for $535,000 in September 2026, and the average was $640,248. Condo apartments sold for 97% of asking and took 40 days on average, so buyers have time and room to negotiate. $700,000 puts you in larger two-bedroom units, many with parking. A three-bedroom often needs a condo townhouse, which averaged $749,653 in the 416.
Is a detached home in Toronto cheaper than the suburbs?
In some neighbourhoods, yes. The September 2026 detached benchmark price in Toronto's W03 district was $911,600, which is $334,000 less than Mississauga and $62,000 less than Brampton.
| Detached benchmark price, September 2026 | Benchmark | Change vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto W03 | $911,600 | -5.5% |
| Ajax | $929,400 | -3.7% |
| Brampton | $973,800 | -6.0% |
| Toronto W04 | $1,014,100 | -6.3% |
| Pickering | $1,061,300 | -4.6% |
| Toronto E03 | $1,171,800 | -6.0% |
| Mississauga | $1,245,400 | -4.7% |
| City of Toronto, all districts | $1,417,600 | -4.5% |
| Markham | $1,441,700 | -5.6% |
| Vaughan | $1,496,300 | -5.4% |
| Oakville | $1,573,000 | -3.0% |
I use the MLS Home Price Index benchmark here instead of the average sale price. A district might only have 20 detached sales in a month, so one big house can swing the average. The benchmark prices a typical home, which makes it a fairer comparison.
Where these districts are
TRREB's district lines don't match how most people describe neighbourhoods, so here's roughly what each covers:
- W03: Corso Italia, Caledonia-Fairbank, Keelesdale-Eglinton West, Rockcliffe-Smythe and Beechborough-Greenbrook.
- W04: Mount Dennis, Weston, Maple Leaf, Briar Hill-Belgravia, Yorkdale-Glen Park and Brookhaven-Amesbury.
- E03: East York, Danforth Village, Woodbine-Lumsden, O'Connor-Parkview and Broadview North.
Under the radar, but not quiet
These pockets are still competitive. In September 2026, detached homes sold for 98% of asking in W03, 101% in W04 and 99% in E03. In Mississauga they sold for 96%, and in Vaughan for 97%. E03 detached homes sold in 24 days on average, compared with 30 in Mississauga and 38 in Vaughan.
The value comes with trade-offs worth naming: older homes, smaller lots, less parking and more renovation. That's where the opportunity sits for buyers willing to do some work, and it's the Location Arbitrage idea in my Urban Family Playbook. Two more 416 districts with detached benchmarks under $900,000 in September were E04 ($861,700) and E09 ($877,800) in Scarborough.
Why safer streets are a housing issue
Toronto votes on October 26, and housing is on the ballot in more ways than one. TRREB's president, Daniel Steinfeld, put it plainly in the September Market Watch: the decisions our next mayor and councillors make "can also influence buyer demand and confidence in the market."
One issue I think gets missed is street safety. Campaigns talk about crime, but our roads hurt more people:
| Toronto, 2025 | Count | Source |
|---|---|---|
| People killed in traffic collisions | 39 | City of Toronto |
| Homicides | 45 | Toronto Police Service |
| Serious-injury traffic collisions (estimated) | 255 | City of Toronto Vision Zero report |
| People injured in shootings | 98 | Toronto Police data |
Both numbers were the lowest Toronto had seen in years, which is good news. But traffic deaths in Toronto were up 28% in early 2026 compared with the same stretch of 2025. And e-scooter injuries treated at SickKids rose from 26 in 2023 to 107 in 2025.
The bike lane rip-out
On August 14, 2026, the Ontario Court of Appeal ruled the province can remove 19 km of protected bike lanes on Bloor Street, Yonge Street and University Avenue. Removal work has started, beginning with a stretch of Bloor West in Etobicoke. My view: it's short-sighted. The evidence on these specific lanes is worth knowing:
- An engineering study commissioned by the province estimated removal could increase collisions by 54%, without reducing congestion.
- After the Bloor lanes went in, cycling on the street rose 56%, and daily car traffic fell 16%, according to the City's pilot evaluation.
- A University of Toronto and TCAT study found the share of Bloor merchants serving more than 100 customers on a weekday rose from 34% to 55%.
The other side has points too. The province says about 1.2% of Torontonians commute by bike, a Toronto Metropolitan University study it cites found travel times got worse, and some drivers say parking on Bloor got harder.
What it means for real estate
Walkable, bikeable main streets are part of what people pay for on Bloor, the Danforth and Roncesvalles. For many families, a bike is the second car. If you cycle from the west end to downtown, the Bloor to University route is about to get a lot less comfortable. Some safer routes to know:
- The Martin Goodman and Waterfront Trail along the lake
- The West Toronto Railpath, from Dupont down to Dundas West, which connects to College Street
- Harbord Street, from Ossington to Spadina
- The Kay Gardner Beltline Trail through midtown
- The Danforth bike lanes in the east end
When I help a family choose a neighbourhood, I now map the route they'll actually ride, not just the street they'll live on.
Chow vs Bradford: what each promises on housing
The two front-runners for mayor differ most on the land transfer tax. Brad Bradford would waive Toronto's municipal land transfer tax on the first $1.1 million of a home purchase. Olivia Chow, the incumbent, says that would mean service cuts. Chris Alexander is also running.
| Housing issue | Olivia Chow | Brad Bradford |
|---|---|---|
| Land transfer tax | Keep it; says cutting it means service cuts | Waive it on the first $1.1 million of a purchase |
| Property tax | Increases at or near inflation | One-year freeze, then increases below inflation |
| Building homes | Campaign says affordable project approvals fell from over 1,000 days to 86 | Get bureaucracy out of the way to build more homes; an urban planner by training |
| Development charges | Residential charges cut 40 to 60% through a June 2026 deal with Ottawa and Queen's Park | No specific plan published that I could find |
| Bike lanes | No campaign position I could confirm; the downtown removals are the province's call | Remove the Bloor West lanes in Etobicoke and build a citywide cyclist network |
TRREB has taken a side on one of these. Its CEO, John DiMichele, said in the September Market Watch that governments should make homeownership more attainable "by reducing barriers such as Toronto's Municipal Land Transfer Tax."
What the land transfer tax promise is worth
Toronto buyers pay two land transfer taxes: Ontario's and Toronto's. On a $1.1 million home, each one is $18,475, so the total today is $36,950. Bradford's plan would remove only the Toronto portion, up to $1.1 million.
| Purchase price | Toronto land transfer tax today | First-time buyer saves | Repeat buyer saves |
|---|---|---|---|
| $700,000 | $10,475 | $6,000 | $10,475 |
| $1,100,000 | $18,475 | $14,000 | $18,475 |
| $1,500,000 | $26,475 | $14,000 | $18,475 |
First-time buyers save less because they already get up to $4,475 back from Toronto. The biggest winners are move-up families, who get no rebate today. The campaign hasn't published the plan's cost or how it would be funded, and the Ontario tax wouldn't change.
What I'm seeing on showings this fall
The headlines say the market is slow. On the ground, the best homes are still competitive, and the opportunity is in the homes everyone else skips.
- Move-in ready, under $1.5 million, in core neighbourhoods: these are drawing three to six offers on offer night.
- How winning offers look: large deposits, no conditions and tight closing dates.
- Where the value is: homes that need work, like an underpin for a basement suite or a second bathroom. Buyers are paying a premium to avoid renovation, which leaves room for anyone who doesn't mind it.
- Under the radar neighbourhoods are on sale again: today's buyers are focused on a handful of trendy pockets, so nearby areas with the same transit and amenities are trading at a discount.
The numbers back this up. City of Toronto semi-detached homes sold for 104% of asking in September, while 416 condo apartments sold for 97%. If you're going into an offer night this fall, set your walk-away number before you fall for the house, and have your financing and inspection done before the night, not after.
What's next for the Toronto housing market?
There's some light at the end of the tunnel. At a recent BMO client event, chief economist Douglas Porter made a case that rates may hold steady, which would keep improving the math for buyers.
- Prices have reset. National home prices are down more than 20% from their February 2022 peak, with some of the deepest drops in Southern Ontario.
- Rates: markets expect the Bank of Canada to raise rates, but Porter expects it to hold for the next year. His reasoning: inflation without energy is close to the 2% target, and higher gas prices alone aren't a reason to hike.
- Supply: he expects about 230,000 housing starts nationally next year, though condo construction may weaken.
- Affordability is still stretched. Mortgage and utility costs as a share of income remain well above the long-run median of 35%.
- Population: Canada's population is growing at its slowest pace in more than 100 years.
- The risks: US tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum, and record diesel prices that could push up grocery costs.
For context, the Bank of Canada's overnight rate was 2.25% in September and Toronto's unemployment rate was 6.8% in August, according to the Market Watch.
Dates to watch
- October 26: municipal elections across Toronto and the GTA.
- October 28: the Bank of Canada's next rate decision.
- Early November: TRREB's October Market Watch. I'll break it down in the next episode.
Frequently asked questions
Are bidding wars back in Toronto?
In some neighbourhoods. In September 2026, Toronto semi-detached homes sold for 104% of asking on average, and all homes in the E01 district (Riverdale and Leslieville) sold for 109%. Across the GTA, the average home sold for 98% of asking.
Are Toronto home prices going up?
Not yet. The GTA average price was $1,006,409 in September 2026, down 5.1% from a year earlier, and the benchmark price was down 4.7%. Fewer new listings, down 14.4%, are what's creating competition for the best homes.
Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Toronto?
It depends on the home, but the gap has narrowed. On a $700,000 condo with 6.4% down and a 4.34% rate, the monthly cost you don't get back is about $3,371, compared with $3,609 for an average three-bedroom rental.
What is the cheapest area to buy a detached house in Toronto?
In September 2026, the lowest detached benchmark price among TRREB's Toronto districts was Scarborough's E04 at $861,700, followed by E09 at $877,800 and W03 at $911,600. The benchmark for the City of Toronto as a whole was $1,417,600.
What is Brad Bradford's land transfer tax promise?
Bradford would waive Toronto's municipal land transfer tax on the first $1.1 million of a home purchase. That saves a repeat buyer up to $18,475 and a first-time buyer up to $14,000. Ontario's land transfer tax would still apply.
When is the Toronto municipal election?
Monday, October 26, 2026.
About the author
Josh Jean-Baptiste is a real estate broker with Sage Real Estate in Toronto. He has been licensed since 2012 and has helped hundreds of families buy and sell, with a focus on urban families who want to stay in the 416. He hosts the Under the Radar Podcast and built RADAR Stats, a tool that answers market questions using TRREB's own data.
I have new listings coming up, including a two-bedroom condo with parking in the Junction Triangle. If you'd like to hear about them first, or want to talk through your own move, reach me at 416-483-8000 or josh@realestateundertheradar.com.
This post is for information only and isn't financial, legal or mortgage advice. Rent or own figures are illustrations; your lender sets the real numbers.
Sources
- TRREB Market Watch, September 2026: all GTA and Toronto sales, prices, sale-to-list ratios, inventory and MLS HPI benchmarks in this post
- The Globe and Mail, "First-time homebuyers should still prepare for the 'Wild, Wild West'," September 24, 2026
- Ratehub.ca, best five-year fixed mortgage rates, late September 2026
- Rentals.ca, average three-bedroom asking rent in Toronto
- City of Toronto, Vision Zero Road Safety Plan annual report 2025
- CBC News, Toronto traffic deaths in 2025
- CBC News, 28% jump in Toronto traffic fatalities in 2026
- Toronto homicide and shooting totals, 2025, compiled from Toronto Police Service data
- CBC News, SickKids e-scooter injuries
- CBC News, Court of Appeal ruling on Toronto bike lanes
- The Trillium, government documents on bike lane removal
- City of Toronto, Bloor Street bike lane pilot evaluation
- TCAT, Bikeways and business on Bloor Street
- CTV News, Bradford's land transfer tax promise
- CP24, Toronto's mayoral election guide
- CP24, Chow campaign on affordable housing approvals
- Government of Canada, development charge reductions in Toronto
- Douglas Porter, BMO chief economist, economic update to BMO clients, October 2026
