Is Toronto’s Real Estate Market Crashing? Not If You’re Looking in These Neighbourhoods

“Toronto real estate is crashing.”
“Affordability is back.”
“Wait it out.”

That’s what the headlines are shouting. But if you’re out here waiting for the perfect moment, you might miss the play altogether — especially if you’re not looking in the right places.

Let’s break it down with real numbers, real insights, and a real take on what’s happening in the Toronto real estate market in March 2025.

📉 The Big Picture: GTA Market Stats for March 2025

Sales dropped by 23.1% year-over-year
New listings surged by 28.6%
Average price declined by 2.5%
Detached home prices in the 416? Actually up by 1.1%
Semi-detached in the city? Up 2.6%

If you just skim headlines or general GTA-wide stats, you’d think we’re deep in a buyer’s market. But that’s not the Toronto real estate market rashing story — not even close.

Download the FULL Market report here: April Market Watch

📍 The Micro Market Reality: What the Data Really Says

City-wide averages are like the chorus of a song — catchy, but not always the most important part. The real verses are in the neighbourhoods.

In Toronto’s core, detached and semi-detached homes are holding strong, especially in communities like:

Oakwood Village – $1.2M average sale price, selling 4% over asking in 22 days
Fairbank – $1.065M average, selling 5% over asking, and homes flying in 20 days
Keelesdale – Semis and detached homes still under $1M
Briar Hill – Family-sized condos and townhomes under $700K

These aren’t theory. They’re backed by sales stats, months of inventory, and actual buyer behaviour on the ground. So while some areas of the city are hurting, I don’t know if it buy the whole “Toronto’s Real Estate Market Crashing” nonsense.

🏠 What Makes These Neighbourhoods Different?

Let’s talk housing diversity — something you don’t find everywhere in the city.

Briar Hill in particular has it all:

Rental apartments
Condos (high-rise, low-rise, and townhomes)
Detached + semi-detached homes
Brand-new multiplex and triplex development
Family-sized units with square footage that actually fits a family

You’re close to the Allen Road, Crosstown LRT, and two operating subway lines, with a GO/UP Express connection coming up nearby.

This is why I say: Briar Hill is the most under-the-radar neighbourhood in Toronto. And the data agrees.

📈 What’s Happening with Construction and Costs?

While the media talks affordability, let’s not forget what’s bubbling under the surface:

Tariffs on steel, lumber, aluminum = higher build costs
Altus Group says prices could go up another 1–4%
Some developments may be paused or cancelled

So if you’re banking on a pre-con deal or future inventory to bail you out… be careful. Supply might tighten before it loosens.

🗳️ Federal Election, Housing Promises & What Actually Matters

Both the Liberals and Conservatives are waving housing promises around — tax breaks, red tape cuts, new builds, land leases.

But here’s what I believe:

Removing HST is nice, but it mostly helps investors.
Government-led building is controversial, but necessary — private developers won’t build truly affordable housing.
Land leases over selling land could shift the economics of housing in the right direction.

Whatever your politics, vote for what serves you and your people. Real estate isn’t about soundbites — it’s about survival, wealth-building, and smart decisions.

💬 Let’s Keep It Real: What Should You Do?

“Do what’s best for you.”

It’s a simple mantra, but one that’s realer than ever right now.

Struggling with costs? Sell and downsize.
Can’t afford to buy? Move in with family.
Living large with extra space? Convert a basement into a rental unit.
Want to stay in the city? Look into neighborhoods like Fairbank or Briar Hill instead of chasing the same overpriced blocks.

Don’t let society guilt you into playing a game you weren’t even trying to win.

🎧 Want the Full Breakdown?

This blog only scratches the surface.
To hear the full episode — including my breakdown on tariffs, the election, market myths, and real neighbourhood gems — watch Episode 24 of the Under the Radar Real Estate Podcast:

👉🏾 Watch the Full Podcast Episode on YouTube

🎧 Listen on Spotify

Come for the stats, stay for the truth about “Toronto’s Real Estate Market Crashing”.